ClearFX Daily Commentary - 09/05/2011

Australian Dollar: Friday brought the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy statement and a hawkish tone sent the Aussie rallying, finally topping out at 1.0800 before the markets closed. With the RBA stating further monetary policy tightening is likely in order to keep inflation consistent with medium term forecasts, the local dollar jumped from 1.0650 to above 1.0700 within half an hour. Although some of these gains were given up in early offshore trade, disappointing US unemployment figures provided the Aussie with another leg up and the aforementioned high of 1.0800 was reached. Opening slightly lower this week at 1.0715 investors will be closely watching recent developments in the Euro-zone debt crisis and closer to home the release of ANZ Job Advertisements later this morning.

We expect a range today of 1.6050 – 1.0760

New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand dollar rallied from opening lows of 0.7830 on Friday with a steady climb pushing it through 79 cents by midday. A retreat caused by resistance at this level meant the Kiwi entered offshore trade around 0.7870 however an unexpected increase in the US unemployment rate catapulted it 50 points higher immediately on release. The rally extended to a high of 0.7970 although this level triggered a sell-off and we open this morning flirting with the 0.7900 handle. Against the Aussie the New Zealand Dollar lost ground in the wake of a hawkish RBA on Friday although market correction helped it pare some of its losses and close the week near 0.7400. Today’s open sees the antipodean pair trading at 0.7380.

We expect a range today of 0.7860 – 0.7950

Great British Pound: A mixed batch of data has prevented the British Pound forging an obvious short-term trend and the market rate has oscillated between 1.6350 and 1.6450 since Friday morning. An increase in Producer Price Index last month lent support to Sterling although a private report confirming the number of new car sales continued to fall meant unwanted pressure was placed back on the Pound. Only the unexpected increase in US unemployment provided any support to Cable after this and despite an intraday high of just above 1.6450 the pair opens this week lower near 1.6370. Sterling also opens the week lower against the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, trading at 1.5260 and 2.0680 respectively.

We expect a range today of 1.5190 – 1.5330

Majors: The Euro found itself on the back foot last Friday as an article in a Greek newspaper said Greece is considering leaving the Euro Zone and re-introducing its own currency. Greece was quick to deny the rumours and an emergency meeting held in Luxembourg consisting of representatives from the main Euro zone countries saw the main point of discussion to be the welfare of the Greek economy rather than a Greek exit from the Union. The admission of EU officials that Greece needs a further adjustment programme to reduce its budget deficit provided little support to the shared currency and the Euro has fallen sharply from recent highs and closed the week down at 1.4350. Disappointing unemployment figures also saw the Greenback under pressure overnight on Friday as the US unemployment rate increased unexpectedly to 9%. Despite a reported increase in non-farm payroll figures the US Dollar slid initially against most of its counterparts although by close of trade the Dollar had pared most of its losses. We open this week with the Euro at 1.4370 and the Japanese Yen trading at 80.60.

Data releases

AUD: ANZ Job Advertisements m/m

NZD: No data due for release

JPY: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

GBP: No data due for release

EUR: German Trade Balance; Sentix Investor Confidence

USD: No data due for release