ClearFX Daily Commentary - 19/05/2011

Australian Dollar: A weaker reading in both the Westpac Consumer Sentiment (actual -1.3%; previous 1.2%) survey and quarterly Wage Price Index (actual 0.8%; previous 1%) saw the Aussie slip off 30 pips yesterday with the result potentially adding evidence that rates may remain on hold when the RBA meets the first Tuesday of next month. In the offshore session the Aussie moved between 1.0568 and 1.0664 as a combination of European Sovereign Debt issues (more specifically Greek debt restructuring), lower prices in commodities and the F.O.M.C minutes restricted AUD movements. Yesterday’s surprise downgrade late in the afternoon by Moody’s Investor Service which cut its rating on the country’s four biggest banks also hampered investors’ appetite for the local unit.

We expect a range today of 1.0550 to 1.0650

New Zealand Dollar: A surge in both the Input and Output components of the Producer Price Index saw the Kiwi rally against the US Dollar yesterday with the pair trading to an Asian high of 0.7912 with many market observers seeing some sign of a turnaround in New Zealand. During the offshore session the Kiwi traded between 0.7847 and 0.7913 despite European Sovereign Debt issues continuing to dominate the airwaves and curtail high yielding currency buying. Today sees the release of the annual budget with some local NZ banks predicting that the government accounts could be back in surplus by 2014. The budget is due to be delivered by Finance Minster Bill English 8.00 PM NZ time this evening. Meanwhile the NZ Dollar is changing hands at 1.3460 against the Australian Dollar.

We expect a range today of 0.7820 to 0.7920

Great British Pound: The release overnight of the Bank of England’s previous monetary policy meeting held little in the way of surprises for the market with the voting to hike rates still favoured by 3 (Andrew Sentance, Spencer Dale and Martin Weale) out of the 9 board members. Bank of England members continue to face the precarious task of balancing economic growth and inflationary pressures with monetary policy. The Asset Purchase Programme of GBP200 million pounds remained in place as well. GBP traded between 1.6102 and 1.6288 against the Greenback through the European and US Sessions. Against it’s the Australian and New Zealand Dollar, Pound Sterling is trading at 1.5199 and 2.0484 respectively.

We expect a range today of 1.5140 to 1.5320

Majors: Potential Greek Sovereign restructuring kept a lid on the EURO in the overnight session with the 17 nation currency limited to a 1 cent range of 1.4186 to 1.4287 versus the US Dollar. News of out Europe last night came via the European Central Bank firmly ruling out any restructuring of debt by its members with comments coming from one ECB Board member stating that it would “create a catastrophe” if it occurred. Out of the US overnight were the minutes from the F.O.M.C. (Federal Open Market Committee) which indicated that policy makers began to discuss exit strategies to reverse the current record monetary stimulus at its last meeting and the potential steps required for the exit (i.e. sell assets, raise rates). The Greenback rose against a basket of currencies after the release with the market forecasting that the US is on a firmer road to recovery.

Data releases

AUD: MI Inflation Expectations

NZD: Annual Budget Release

JPY: Revised Industrial Production

GBP: Retail Sales; CBI Industrial Order Expectations

EUR: No data slated for release

USD: Unemployment Claims; Existing Home Sales, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index