ClearFX Daily Commentary - 08/06/2011

Australian Dollar: As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75 per cent. At yesterday’s meeting, the Board judged that the “current mildly restrictive stance of monetary policy remained appropriate” and it will continue to monitor the “outlook for growth and inflation”. The accompanying statement provided no surprises to the market however there was no reference to future rate hikes which caused the Australian Dollar to dip beneath USD107 cents from an intraday high of 1.0750 – a level where there has been no shortage of resistance in recent sessions. During overnight trade, the Aussie was bought on the dips and moved back towards 1.0730 ahead of this morning’s opening level of 1.0715.

We expect a range today of 1.0680 – 1.0780

New Zealand Dollar: The kiwi firmed during Tuesday’s domestic session to a high of 0.8165. In the absence of any local economic data the unit followed a stronger Australian Dollar steadily higher, although stopping short of last week’s 26-year high of 0.8260. Support for the currency is at US81 cents. Markets have been content to trade the ranges ahead of tomorrow’s interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Whilst the official cash rate is widely tipped to remain on hold at 2.5 per cent, the accompanying statement from RBNZ Governor Mr Allan Bollard will be closely scrutinised by FX markets. During overnight trade, the kiwi moved to a high of 0.8230 ahead of this morning’s opening level of US82 cents.

We expect a range today of 0.8175 – 0.8250

Great British Pound: Pound Sterling (1.6440) opens a shade higher against the US Dollar today after local data showed UK house prices rose 0.1 per cent in May, following a 1.4 per cent decline the previous month. Greenback weakness across the board also lifted the pound which moved to a 24-hour high of 1.6472. The Bank of England meets tomorrow and is expected to keep rates on hold at a record low of 0.5 per cent. Rates have been at this level since March 2009. Meanwhile, the pound opens higher against the Australian Dollar at 1.5330 and weaker against the New Zealand Dollar at 2.0030.

We expect a range today of 1.5300 – 1.5360

Majors: The Euro (1.4690) hit fresh one-month highs against its US counterpart overnight as the European Central Bank (ECB) pledged its support for the rollover of Greek bonds. Weak US fundamentals are weighing on the greenback which was softer across the board overnight. Also supporting the 17-nation currency, which hit an overnight high of 1.4695, is the prospect of higher interest rates in the Euro zone as economic performance in the United States and the UK remains sluggish. The ECB announces its latest interest rate decision on Thursday June 9, and whilst most are expecting no change to the current level of 1.25 per cent, the bank may indicate its intentions to raise rates in the near future. Meanwhile, the big dollar is marginally off one-month lows against the Japanese Yen and opens today at 80.05.

Data releases

AUD: Home loans, April

NZD: No data today

JPY: Eco watchers survey, April

GBP: No data today

EUR: Euro zone GDP

USD: US Fed Beige Book economic survey