ClearFX Daily Commentary - 13/06/2011

Australian Dollar:

With it being a Public Holiday (Queens Birthday) in Australia today local trading volumes are expected to be thin as we see the Australian Dollar open noticeably lower against the Greenback at a rate of 1.0531. On Friday we saw the Australian Currency initially open at a rate of 1.0624 however selling in both the domestic and offshore sessions, driven by investors shedding riskier assets such as the Australian dollar we saw the rate drop as low as 1.0525 against its US Counterpart. In what eventuated as a broad week of losses for the Australian Currency, the ongoing volatility surrounding exchange rates is expected to continue given global growth concerns, a global financial environment which is being dictated by market sentiment as well as a Australian economic docket which appears to be relatively subdued in the coming days

We expect a range today of 1.0490 -1.0570

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand Dollar paused on Friday to catch its breath as it opens this morning around 50 Basis points lower at a rate of 0.8198 against its US Counterpart. As Global Risk Aversion took hold of the kiwi sending it as low as 0.8205 during overnight trade, the kiwi enjoyed a memorable week reaching a post float high of 0.8302 on Thursday. With speculation mounting on Friday that the New Zealand Central Bank may start to reverse a March Interest Rate cut of half a percent sooner rather than later, the exchange rate appears well supported above the 0.8150 level in the Short to Medium Term. As domestic growth prospects continue to improve following the Nation’s deadliest earthquake in 80 years the kiwi opens higher also against its Trans-Tasman rival at a rate of 0.7777

We expect a range today of 0.8170 - 8250

Great British Pound:

A Report Released out of the UK on Friday showed that Manufacturing output dropped at its fastest pace in more than two years for the month of April. The results showed a decline of 1.5% significantly lower than the median forecast of an expected decline of just 0.1%. Off the back of such events the Great British Pound was immediately sold and despite its tight trading range throughout the Asian session it managed to shed over a cent and half trading as low as 1.6212 after reaching an earlier high of 1.6383 against its US counterpart. While such results have further showed evidence of a UK economy losing momentum the general outlook for the UK economy remains sluggish as we see the Sterling open at a rate of 1.6225 against the greenback and 1.5403 against the Aussie

We expect a range today of 1.5350 – 5.5450

Majors:

US equities rallied on Friday with the S&P 500 Index gaining 0.7 percent. Snapping a six-day decline the Market saw the Release of a US Trade Balance which unexpectedly narrowed as Exports gained 1.3 per cent to US175.6Billion. Despite such results further concern surfaced on Friday surrounding US Government Debt levels, with the Government Deficit tipped to remain over 1 Trillion US Dollars for the coming year. As the US Currency continues to be ignored by investors seeking to hold safe-haven assets we see the currency open slightly lower against the yen this morning at a rate of 80.330. Meanwhile in the EURO Zone on Friday a rumour out of the ECB made further suggestions that that the Central Bank will not act as a “lasting institution” to ensure Greece’s long-term Financial Viability. As the Market comes to grip with the dramatic consequences should Greece Default on their repayment obligations the EURO was sold from intra-day high 1.4550 down as low as 1.4321 as the EURO opens this morning at rate of 1.4328 against the Greenback

Data releases

AUD: Public Holiday

NZD: REINZ HPI m/m

JPY: Core Machinery Orders m/m

GBP: BOE Quarterly Bulletin

EUR: French and German Bank Holiday, Italian Industrial Production m/m

USD: No Data Today