ClearFX Daily Commentary - 15/07/2011

Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar has given back some ground overnight, although it has managed to stay supported above $1.07 for the most part. After rallying to session highs near 1.0785 during Asia yesterday the Aussie was around these levels when the Federal Reserve Governor in the US made it clear the central bank would not rush into a third round of quantitative easing. This dampened demand for riskier assets and the Australian Dollar subsequently tumbled to a low of 1.0695. Quickly recovering we open today at 1.0720 and with a lack of domestic releases on the economic docket the Aussie will be looking towards offshore events for its direction into the close of the week.

We expect a range today of 1.0650 – 1.0760

New Zealand Dollar: Yesterday’s GDP figures catapulted the New Zealand Dollar to fresh record highs once again with a break of 85 cents occurring very briefly. The local economy grew 0.8% last quarter, a pace that is quicker than the first quarter of 2011 and 0.5% above economists’ expectations. Investors will now be speculating the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will look to raise interest rates towards the end of the year, speculation which fuelled the rally in the Kiwi. Unable to consolidate near the 0.8500 handle, the currency pair moved lower and eventually dipped to a low of 0.8400 when it got caught in a selloff of riskier assets during the North American session. Against the Australian Dollar, the Kiwi has managed to retain most of its ground after reaching its highest level since November last year. Rallying to 0.7880, the antipodean cross opens today at 1.2730 (0.7855).

We expect a range today of 0.8390 – 0.8480

Great British Pound: The British Pound has found itself in range-bound trade against the Greenback, and despite a bought of risk aversion finds itself relatively unchanged. Trailing slightly lower from opening levels yesterday, Cable eventually found what seems to be decent support at 1.6100. Capped by resistance at 1.6150 it is likely we will see the pair continue in this range during Asian hours at least. Looking offshore, noteworthy events scheduled before this week’s close are US core CPI and Consumer Sentiment both of which have the potential to create some volatility for Sterling. Against its Australasian trading partners, Sterling finds itself slightly higher against the Australian Dollar at 1.5050 and after falling to a session low of 1.9020 against the Kiwi, it now trades at 1.9160.

We expect a range today of 1.4980 – 1.5110

Majors: Following on from his testimony on Wednesday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke again yesterday, telling Congress the central bank is not yet ready to embark upon a third round of quantitative easing to stimulate the economy. The Greenback erased losses against its counterparts after Bernanke clarified that inflation levels are much higher and closer to target than they were in August 2010; thus indicating the Fed will require a few more months of weakening data before intervention will be considered. The Euro lost a cent and a half from daily highs, falling to 1.4120 and the US Dollar pushed back to 79.20 against the Japanese Yen. Looking ahead the Greenback remains likely to remain under pressure as debate regarding the Debt Ceiling remains in a stalemate. With less than three weeks before a deal must be agreed upon, investors will remain cautious as a potential US default would have considerable impact on the forex markets.

Data releases

AUD: No data due for release

NZD: No data due for release

JPY: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

GBP: No data due for release

EUR: Trade Balance; Italian Trade Balance; Bank Stress Test Results

USD: Core CPI m/m; Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment; Industrial Production m/m; Empire State Manufacturing Index