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Australian Dollar: The recent risk rally continued for a fourth-straight session pushing the Aussie to a high of 0.9860 during New York trade however the sharp move was short-lived and we open at 0.9730 on Monday morning. Last Friday saw plenty of buyers at US97 cents after bank action in Europe bolstered the confidence of investors. Add to this a 2 per cent rally in local equities and another gain in commodity prices, it was virtually a straight line all the way to US98 cents during the Asian session. Risk sentiment was further buoyed after US non-farm payrolls came in better than expected with 103,000 jobs added compared to forecasts of 60,000 and this was the main catalyst for the sharp rally through 0.9850. The US jobless rate however remains stuck at 9.1 per cent.
We expect a range today of 0.9700 to 0.9800
New Zealand Dollar: Like its trans-Tasman rival, the kiwi rallied during Friday trade moving from a low of 0.7690 to an offshore high of 0.7796 after bank action in Europe bolstered the confidence of investors. The rally was unsustainable and the unit opens the new week at 0.7670 against the greenback after rallying over 2 US cents last week. There are no major economic data releases due this week in New Zealand leaving the currency exposed to offshore events and overall risk sentiment. On the cross rates, the kiwi opens higher against the Euro (0.5742) and marginally softer against the Aussie (0.7870)
We expect a range today of 0.7625 to 0.7730
Great British Pound: Sterling continued its recent ascent on Friday and opens today at 1.5552 against its US counterpart after last week’s decision by the Bank of England (BoE) to inject another 75 billion pounds into the ailing economy. The move surprised many investors which saw the currency post its biggest intraday gain in three months. Sterling has advanced almost 3 per cent in the last 4 weeks. The stimulus measures came earlier than most had expected and BoE Governor Mervyn King did not mince his words warning the world is facing the worst financial crisis since at least the 1930s "if not ever". Meanwhile, the pound opens higher against both the Australian Dollar (1.5956) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.0240).
We expect a range today of 1.5900 to 1.5990
Majors: The Euro opens under pressure against both the Yen (102.40) and the greenback (1.3350) in the wake of last week's ratings downgrades to both Italy and Spain even as the European Central Bank pledged further banking support. Currencies linked to risk and emerging markets were the main beneficiaries during Friday trade as they retraced some of the vast ground lost over recent weeks. The ratings downgrades were particularly telling for the 17-nation currency as the market believes there is still plenty of issues for indebted nations to work through. The Euro traded between 1.3360 and 1.3520 on Friday. Meanwhile, in the United States, non-farm payrolls came in better than expected with 103,000 jobs added compared to forecasts of 60,000. The greenback opens little-changed against the Japanese Yen today at 76.70.
Data today:
AUD: ANZ job ads, Sept
NZD: REINZ Housing price index, Sept
JPY: No data today
GBP: No data today
EUR: German trade balance, August
USD: Public holiday, markets closed
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