ClearFX Daily Commentary - 06/05/2011

Australian Dollar:

In local trade yesterday we saw the release of Australian Retail sales with the subsequent poor result surprising the market. Despite economists forecasting a rise in sales of 0.5% for the month of March the actual figure came in negative 0.5 per cent, giving way to a significant sell off in the Aussie Dollar. The apparent degree of caution demonstrated by consumers saw the Australian dollar sold across the board falling even further in overnight trading reaching an eventual low of 1.0536. After losing almost 5 cents since hitting historical highs above the 1.10 level on Monday we see the Aussie dollar open this morning buying 1.0579 US Cents

We expect a range today of 1.0510-1.0620

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand Dollar opens lower this morning at a rate of 0.7840 after a mixed day of trading. During the domestic session the kiwi was well supported by better than expected Jobs data. The official unemployment figure released yesterday came in better than expected falling slightly to see a result of 6.6 per cent with the number of unemployed down by 2000 people for the month of March. Despite a strong rally intraday reaching a high of 0.7940, the kiwi erased all of its previous gains dropping for a fourth consecutive day in the overnight session as commodities, global equities, oil and gold all finished weaker.

We expect a range today of 0.7790 - 7880

Great British Pound:

As expected the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate on hold yesterday at a record low of 0.50 per cent. Whist policy makers continue to focus on stimulating growth, Governor Mervyn King further emphasised the fact the British economy still remains very much in stagnated waters. Following the statement the pound was sold across the board in the overnight session as investors retreated back into the Greenback. After drifting as low as 1.6358 overnight we see the Sterling open this morning buying 1.6389 having lost a full cent an half. Meanwhile today the market looks aheaad to the release of PPI output figures which any reading above the expected 0.7% mark potentially provided some needed support for the sterling.

We expect a range today of 1.5420 – 1.5510

Majors:

In what proved a volatile session yesterday the US Currency strengthened against all 16 major counterparties with the exception of the Japanese Yen. With such large moves witnessed overnight Commodity prices plunged the most since 2009, with Oil also tumbling 8.6%. This evening sees the release of the highly anticipated non-farm payrolls, with the US Federal Reserve keen to see a defined improvement in labour markets before any move away from record low interest rates can be warranted. While on Interest Rates ECB President Jean Claude Trichet kept European interest rates on hold last night, with clear signals showing he will wait unitil after June until rates are raised. Off the back of such announcements the EURO immediately dropped plummeting from a intraday high of 1.4898 to a low of 1.4509 against the greenback. Meanwhile the Yen remains steady currently sitting at a rate of 80.219.

Data releases

AUD: RBA Monetary Policy Statement

NZD: No Data

JPY: Monetary Base y/y

GBP: PPI Output m/m, BOE Gov King Speaks

EUR: French Trade Balance, German Industrial Production m/m

USD: Non-farm Employment , Unemployment Rate