ClearFX Daily Commentary - 03/06/2011

Australian Dollar: The Aussie moved higher in onshore trade yesterday as Retail Sales posted a 1.1% increase in April, up from March’s 0.3% decrease. Our Trade Balance reported a lower than expected surplus of 1.60 billion, however the temporary nature of the factors decreasing exports was considered and the Australian Dollar jumped to 1.0650. Paring these gains as the afternoon wore on, the Aussie trailed lower to test support at $1.06, and even as the Aussie was sold following disappointing US Jobless Claims, this support level held. In addition to this unemployment data, New York hours saw a warning from Moody’s to the US government which announced the possibility of a debt rating review for potential downgrade. The Riskier assets benefited from this news and the Aussie rallied almost a full cent and opens this morning at 1.0670.

We expect a range today of 1.0600 – 1.0730

New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar fell back to 0.8110 during the Asian session yesterday as a selloff in the AUD/NZD cross-rate pulled the Kiwi lower. Positive Aussie retail sales caused the rally and the Kiwi also fell to an intraday low near 0.7645 against its high-yielding counterpart. Greenback weakness following disappointing employment data and threat of a potential downgrade from Moody’s has helped the Kiwi pare these losses and opens at 0.8160 this morning after rallying near 0.8180 during North American hours. Unchanged against the Aussie, markets will look to NZ Building Consents due out this morning and NF payrolls later tonight for direction.

We expect a range today of 0.8090 – 0.8200

Great British Pound: Construction PMI proved better than expected overnight, reporting an index of 54.0 which is higher than the previous reading of 53.3. Sterling rallied on the news and moved a full cent higher to briefly touch highs of 1.6415. A sharp drop wiped these gains however the Greenback sell-off resulting from a potential review of the US debt rating by Moody’s meant the Pound recovered some of these gains. After a volatile 24 hours, Cable opens this morning at 1.6360/70 and the Aussie and Kiwi cross-rates at 1.5340 and 2.02.0050 respectively.

We expect a range today of 1.5290 – 1.5400

Majors: The Greenback has come under selling pressure after it was announced Moody’s could be placing the country’s debt rating on review. Currently with a rating of Aaa, the US government has been warned it will be placed on review for a downgrade if no progress is made on increasing the debt ceiling in the coming weeks. In addition to an agreed increase, the government will also need to produce a ‘credible agreement’ as to substantial deficit cuts to support a continued stable outlook. Dragging the big Dollar south, it opens today at 1.4490 against the Euro, after briefly having the 1.4500 threshold broken through. The Japanese Yen also pushed the Greenback to a low of 80.60 however the safe-haven pair opens slightly higher this morning at 80.95. Later tonight is the much anticipated monthly Non-Farm Payrolls and with disappointing figures for US Jobless claims overnight investors will be watching this key indicator with a degree of concern.

Data releases

AUD: AIG Services Index

NZD: Building Consents m/m

JPY: No data due for release

GBP: Services PMI

EUR: Final Services PMI

USD: Non-Farm Payrolls; Unemployment Rate; ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI