ClearFX Daily Commentary - 22/06/2011

Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar took a tumble during yesterday’s domestic session after the June minutes of the Reserve Bank policy meeting revealed there was no urgency to raise rates. The Aussie fell sharply to an intraday low of 1.0530 – not far from a key support level around the 1.0480 region. For the best part of the last 4 weeks, the unit has traded in a broad range between the afore-mentioned 1.0480 and a high of 1.0750. During the offshore session, the Aussie moved to a high of 1.0619 ahead of this morning’s opening level of US106 cents on the back of a stronger Euro and a pick-up in stocks, commodities and general risk appetite.

We expect a range today of 1.0550 – 1.0630

New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar opens this morning relatively unchanged against its US Counterpart at a rate of 0.8122. During the Asian session yesterday the kiwi was range bound as commodities strengthened and investors remained wary of any updates out of the EURO Zone likely to impact negatively for riskier assets such as the New Zealand Dollar. While the Currency did drop briefly below the 81 US cent mark, the kiwi does appear well supported around these levels. Meanwhile the market looks ahead this morning to the release of Domestic Current Account Figures with any larger than expected surplus likely to have a positive impact on the New Zealand Currency.

We expect a range today of 0.8070 – 0.8140

Great British Pound: The Pound fell initially overnight as comments from Paul Fisher, director of the Bank of England, stated that officials haven’t ruled out adding to the bond purchase programme (currently at GBP200 Billion) if the economy requires such support. CABLE fell from 1.6240 straight after the comments to 1.6165 as traders weigh up future interest rate hikes in the UK. Many continue to speculate that this will not occur until the latter part of 2011 as the Bank of England attempts to fight high inflation without hampering growth. Out tonight in the UK is the release of the Bank of England’s minutes from its June meeting. The comment and tone will be closely monitored by the market especially since Andrew Sentance, one of the few hawks on the board, is no longer a voting member with the BoE. Against the Australian and New Zealand Dollar, the Pound is changing hands at 1.5310 and 1.9980 respectively.

We expect a range today of 1.5280 – 1.5360

Majors: The big dollar is weaker across the board as the US Federal Reserve meets today to discuss monetary policy. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting is expected to keep interest rates at 0 – 0.25 per cent in light of recent soft economic data releases. A report overnight showed sales of existing homes in the United States fell in May to the lowest level in six months. The greenback opens at 80.16 against the Japanese Yen, down from a 24-hour peak of 80.33. Meanwhile, the Euro opens higher today at 1.4370 after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won a confidence vote late on Tuesday – this is a key step towards further financial aid and avoiding default on maturing debt. Risk appetite returned and the Euro rallied to an overnight high of 1.4421 as commodities and stocks also firmed.

Data releases

AUD: Westpac Leading Index, April

NZD: Credit Card Spending, May

JPY: No data today

GBP: Bank of England minutes

EUR: Consumer confidence, June

USD: FOMC meeting