ClearFX Daily Commentary - 30/06/2011

Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar opens higher against the greenback today at 1.0670. During yesterday’s domestic session, the Aussie traded in another narrow range between 1.0515 and 1.0550 but came to life once the Greek parliament passed the much-talked-about budget cuts worth EUR78-billion over the next five years. As a result, the Euro moved sharply higher and the Aussie moved in a similar pattern to a 24-hour high of 1.0685 as the market took risk on board once again. A rally in stocks and commodities overnight also buoyed the currency. The Aussie is also higher on the cross rates at 0.7380 against the Euro and 86.20 against the Japanese Yen.

We expect a range today of 1.0580 – 1.0690

New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar opens sharply higher against its US counterpart today at 0.8245 in the aftermath of the Greek parliament passing new austerity measures. The Euro moved higher as risk appetite returned, with both the kiwi and the Australian Dollar following suit. Earlier, the kiwi had edged to an intraday high of 0.8125 during Wednesday’s domestic session on the back stronger gold and commodity prices. The local market will also be keeping an eye on this morning’s release of June business confidence and activity outlook with any negative readings likely to dent sentiment and send the kiwi back towards US81 cents. Meanwhile, the kiwi opens higher against the Australian Dollar at 0.7720.

We expect a range today of 0.8140 – 0.8275

Great British Pound: Pound Sterling (1.6060) rallied to a high of 1.6073 against the greenback on Wednesday night after the Greek parliament voted in favour of budget cuts and asset sales, boosting demand for risk assets. In local economic news, the Bank of England reported that UK banks granted 45,900 home loans last month which was in line with market expectations. Stronger commodities and global equities for a third straight session also provided support for the UK currency. Meanwhile, the pound has been outperformed by its antipodean rivals and opens lower against both the Aussie (1.5020) and the New Zealand Dollar (1.9450).

We expect a range today of 1.5000 – 1.5100

Majors: The Euro (1.4430) was the beneficiary of a “risk rally” overnight hitting a two-week high of 1.4447 against its US counterpart. European stocks rallied 1.7 per cent on average and commodities firmed after the parliament in Greece voted 155 – 138 in favour of deep budget cuts and asset sales needed to secure further rescue funds from the EU and IMF. Yield advantage was also on the minds of investors in light of recent comments by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet who said policy makers are in “strong vigilance mode”, signalling that rates in the Euro zone may be raised as early as next week. Meanwhile, the big dollar opens at 80.73 against the Japanese Yen after US pending home sales rose 8.2 per cent in May, almost triple the forecast of several leading economists.

Data releases

AUD: Private sector credit, May

NZD: Business confidence and activity outlook, June

JPY: Housing Starts, May

GBP: Nationwide house prices, June

EUR: German retails sales, May; German Unemployment rate, June

USD: Initial jobless claims (June 24).