ClearFX Daily Commentary - 28/06/2011

Australian Dollar: The Aussie finally gave way to selling pressure yesterday and hit a 10-week low of 1.0410 against the U.S. Dollar as concerns over the debt situation in Europe continue. In the absence of any local economic data, market participants turned their attention to Europe and risk aversion. The parliament in Greece began a three-day debate regarding budget cuts overnight with a vote on EUR78bio worth of austerity measures expected on June 29. During the offshore session, the unit hit a low of 1.0390 as gold, copper and oil all moved lower. We open this morning at 1.0430.

We expect a range today of 1.0390 – 1.0475

New Zealand Dollar: A combination of risk aversion and a lower-than-expected trade surplus announced yesterday took the New Zealand Dollar down to a 10-day low of 0.8010. A 17 per cent climb in merchandise imports in May compared to the same time last year took the monthly trade surplus to NZ$605 million. The kiwi lost a third of one US cent immediately after the announcement and spent most of the Asian session trading just above the US80 cent area. During overnight trade, the currency moved to a low of 0.8008 ahead of this morning’s opening level of 0.8050. With commodity prices also lower, the kiwi is likely to remain capped ahead of Thursday’s business confidence data.

We expect a range today of 0.8000 – 0.8100

Great British Pound: Weak economic data continues to hamper the pound pushing it to a five-month low against the greenback overnight at 1.5912. Sterling opens at 1.5982 after UK house prices fell 0.1 per cent in June, according to London-based property researcher Hometrack, underlining concerns the economic recovery is stalling. As traders weigh up future interest rate hikes in the UK, many continue to speculate that this will not occur until 2012 as the Bank of England attempts to fight high inflation without hampering growth. Meanwhile in other overnight action, the pound has outperformed both the Australian Dollar (1.5300) and the New Zealand Dollar (1.9840).

We expect a range today of 1.5290 – 1.5350

Majors: The big dollar hit a two-week high against the Japanese Yen overnight of 80.97 despite US consumer spending stagnating in May. Personal consumption expenditure was unchanged compared to a 0.3 per cent gain the previous month. Sentiment for the greenback was boosted overnight as US stocks rebounded after 3 days of losses. Meanwhile, the Euro rose overnight hitting a high of 1.4293 against the US dollar as investors speculate that Greece’s parliament will approve the EUR78bio worth of austerity measures needed to ensure further EU and IMF support.

Data releases

AUD: No data today

NZD: No data today

JPY: Retail Trade, May

GBP: GDP, Q1

EUR: No data today

USD: Consumer confidence, June