ClearFX Daily Commentary - 27/06/2011

Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar endured another lacklustre local session on Friday moving between a low of 1.0510 and a high of 1.0545. Providing some support on the day were comments from Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Philip Lowe who hinted the central bank may need to move on the cash rate. Speaking at luncheon in Adelaide, Mr Lowe expects a “gradual rise” in underlying inflation over the next couple of years. Overall, risk aversion remains a dominant theme whilst concerns over Greece linger and Friday night''s offshore session was no exception with the unit moving to a 24-hour low of 1.0485, pulling up just shy of last weeks one month low of 1.0453. The Aussie opens under pressure at 1.0470.

We expect a range today of 1.0440 – 1.0510

New Zealand Dollar: The kiwi walked a familiar path on Friday trading between a high of 0.8155 and a low of 0.8125 before heading into the European session changing hands at 0.8130 against its US counterpart. Risk aversion and continued concerns over the Greek debt situation are keeping a lid on currencies linked to growth such as the New Zealand Dollar. In offshore trade, the unit hit a low of 0.8093 after durable goods data out of the United States came in better than expected strengthening the greenback across the board. The kiwi opens lower against the US Dollar today at 0.8080 however it remains strong on the cross rates and is trading at 0.5692 against the Euro.

We expect a range today of 0.8040 – 0.8110

Great British Pound: Pound sterling remains weak against several major currencies as investors scale back estimates on the when the Bank of England (BoE) will next raise rates to as far away as May 2012. A series of weak economic releases recently has seen the pound move beneath 1.6000 against the greenback. Sellers emerged once again pushing the currency to an overnight low of 1.5950 after comments from BoE governor Mervyn King who said on Friday the Euro-area debt crisis poses the biggest risk to the stability of the UK financial system. Meanwhile, the pound opens steady against the Australian Dollar (1.5210) and marginally higher against the New Zealand Dollar (1.9750).

We expect a range today of 1.5200 – 1.5265

Majors: The Greenback opens little-changed against the Japanese Yen (80.33) and stronger against the Euro (1.4180) after a higher-than-expected rise in durable goods orders in the United States in May. In a signal that manufacturing may rebound in the second half of the year, orders for equipment meant to last at least three years rose 1.9 per cent after a 2.7 per cent drop in April. Meanwhile, the Euro weakened against several major currencies as market participants remain cautious about Greek’s austerity plans and a European Union pledge to stabilise the region’s economy. The 17-nation currency fell from a 24-hour high of 1.4305 in early New York Trade down to 1.4141 ahead of this week’s vote by Greek lawmakers to approve EUR78bio in budget cuts.

Data releases

AUD: No data today

NZD: Trade Balance, May

JPY: No data today

GBP: No data today

EUR: No data today

USD: Personal income & spending, May