ClearFX Daily Commentary - 05/07/2011

Australian Dollar:

As the majority of investors initially stayed on the sidelines yesterday morning, the Australian Dollar was sold heavily in the second half of the Asian Session as Australian Retail Sales produced a reading of negative 0.6 percent for the month of May. With such results coming in well below an expected reading of 0.3 Percent the Aussie Dollar was sold to reach an intra-day low of 1.0711 against its US Counterpart. Despite the initial sell off the currency has done well to consolidate around these levels as the Australian Dollar opens slightly lower this morning a rate of 1.0734. As the market looks towards the RBA’s Monetary Policy announcement today the Benchmark Cash Rate is widely expected to remain unchanged at 4.75 percent

We expect a range today of 1.0690 – 1.0790

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand Dollar enjoyed steady gains yesterday despite the release of an industry report showing the value of the country's commodity exports fell in June for the first time in 10 Months. While the ANZ Commodity Index fell 1.2 percent from May investors recent demand for the kiwi continued throughout yesterdays domestic session as the currency hit a 24 hour high of 0.8310 against its US Counterpart. As US Markets remained closed as a result of the Independence Day Public Holiday, ranges did tighten during overnight trade as the New Zealand Dollar opens higher this morning currently buying 83.04 US Cents.

We expect a range today of 0.8240 - 0.8320

Great British Pound:

The Great British Pound gained ground versus most of its 16 major peers yesterday, as it opens slightly higher against its US Counterpart at a rate of 1.6084. Despite a report measuring Construction falling more than estimated in June the Sterling was purchased to reach a 24 hour high of 1.6139. With ongoing signs that the UK economy is still going through a relatively lean patch the expectation that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold for longer has the potential to limit further a further appreciation in the near term. Meanwhile this morning the Great British Pound opens noticeably higher against the Australian Dollar at a rate of 1.4978

We expect a range today of 1.4950 - 1.5020

Majors:

The U.S Dollar was mixed against a handful of major currencies yesterday with US Financial Markets remaining closed for a National Public Holiday. Given below average liquidity, the Greenback remained within a tight trading range against the Japanese Yen opening this morning at a rate of 80.760. With significant economic announcements expected later in the week in form of non-farm payroll and employment data out of the US, the higher yielding currencies have been the major benefactor of a subdued greenback over the early parts of this week. Meanwhile in the EURO Zone the major headline overnight was a report issued by Standard & Poor’s Rating Agency noting that any French or German bank rollover plan would prompt a default on Greek Government Debt. While such news appears to have done little to effect currency movements in the near-term the EURO opens little unchanged this morning currently trading at a rate of 1.4539.

Data releases

AUD: AIG Services Index, Trade Balance, Official Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement

NZD: NZIER Business Confidence

JPY: Average Cash Earnings y/y

GBP: Halifax HPI m/m, Services PMI

EUR: Final Services PMI, Retail Sales m/m

USD: Factory Orders m/m