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Currency PairExpected RangesCharts
AUD/USD0.9610 – 0.9700View Chart here
NZD/USD0.7570 – 0.7650
View Chart here
GBP/AUD1.5980 – 1.6150
View Chart here


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Australian Dollar: Ongoing risk aversion and Greenback strength has once again sent the Australian Dollar lower after it tested levels above 99 cents last week. An intraday high of 0.9800 during Asia on Friday was the best it was going to get and Private Sector Credit did little to boost the local unit. As the day wore on, worsening market sentiment and end of quarter positioning spurred demand for the Greenback causing the Aussie to continue south through 97 cents and close the week at 0.9678. Saturday saw the release of Chinese manufacturing PMI and Aussie bulls would have been hoping for a positive figure to boost the currency come this morning however a release in line with expectations means we open this week even lower at 0.9655. A public holiday in NSW and the ACT today leaves the economic calendar a little thin although tomorrow does hold the monthly RBA rate decision, a key risk event for the Australian Dollar this week.
 
New Zealand Dollar:  The New Zealand Dollar has stabilised somewhat after Fitch Rating Services downgraded the nations credit rating by one step to AA, down from its previous AA+ Rating. Since starting Friday with a 170 point loss, the Kiwi had bounced back above 0.7700 yet resumed another downward trend from these levels. A slight decrease in local business confidence did little to the currency as it moved to session lows of 0.7630 before heading offshore. Ongoing risk aversion and Greenback strength lead the Kiwi to test support at 0.7600 which holds through to this morning’s open. Trading at 0.7620 against the US Dollar at time of writing, the Kiwi has reclaimed some ground against the Aussie and buys 78.9 cents.
 
Great British Pound: A combination of domestic growth concerns and exposure to European debt issues continues to keep the British Pound suppressed, and upward movement was capped just above 1.5660 on Friday. Consumer confidence for September improved to -30, better than the expected decrease to -33, and this helped Sterling reach its aforementioned intraday highs. Overriding themes of global growth concern and European debt ultimately sent Cable lower and the pair closed the week trading at 1.5590. Gapping lower this morning markets are wary of the week ahead, as Greece still waits to receive approval for its next bailout payment and many central banks, including the BOE are scheduled to meet. The Pound this morning opens at 1.5550 against the US Dollar, 1.6090 against the Aussie and 2.0400 against the Kiwi.
 
Majors: Concerns of a global slowdown are once again at the forefront of investors’ minds as German retail sales posted a greater than expected fall and U.S. consumer spending also slowed in August. The Euro initially slipped from 1.3550 against the Greenback to 1.3490 before continuing lower throughout the European and North American sessions to close the week at 1.3395; a better than predicted Chicago PMI and UoM Consumer Sentiment survey both failing to placate market worries. Markets have sustained end of week losses opening this morning with the Greenback higher across the board, and until Greece gains approval to receive its next tranche of bailout funds it looks to remain this way. The Euro trades well below key support near 1.3350 and the US Dollar is back above 77 Yen for the time being. Key this week will be the monetary policy meetings of the ECB and BOJ, as well as ongoing talks between European leaders.

Data releases
AUD: Bank holiday NSW/ACT
NZD: Trade balance
JPY: No data due for release
GBP: No data due for release
EUR: German Ifo Business Climate
USD: New Home Sales
 


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