ClearFX Daily Commentary - 07/07/2011

Australian Dollar:

The Australian Dollar showed remarkable resilience during yesterday’s domestic session with support holding around the 1.0670 area. Along with exporter interest, buyers of the unit included Asian central banks resulting in an intraday high of 1.0732 which came less than 24 hours after a somewhat dovish statement by the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday. During the offshore session, the Aussie was sold however moving to an overnight low of 1.0653 ahead of this morning’s opening level of 1.0695. The local market will turn its attention to the release today of June unemployment data due at 11:30AEST, with any figure lower than the expected 4.9 per cent potentially seeing the Aussie firm for the day.

We expect a range today of 1.0650 -1.0760

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand Dollar paused for breath during the domestic session on Wednesday trading in a narrow range by recent standards between 0.8260 and US83 cents. Resistance for the kiwi is seen up at 0.8330 – the recent 30-year high. During offshore trade, the unit moved between a low of 0.8237 and a high of 0.8301. First quarter gross domestic product data is scheduled for release this morning with a figure of 0.3 per cent expected by most economists. Markets will also be keeping an eye on developments offshore tonight with the European Central Bank expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points as the kiwi opens marginally higher this morning currently buying 82.71 US Cents.

We expect a range today of 0.8240 - 0.8310

Great British Pound:

A report released out of the UK overnight showed house prices rose the most in eight months as a lack of supply of homes for sales supported values. Despite such strong readings the Bank of England are due to meet this evening with most economists expecting rates to remain unchanged. As the Great British Pound traded between a low of 1.5947 and a high of 1.6090 against its US Counterpart yesterday it was news out of China that the Central Bank had raised the official cash rate for the third time this year which saw the sterling sold as a consequence. With ongoing concerns that China are being a little bit to proactive in constraining growth the Sterling opens around 50 basis points lower against the Greenback at a rate of 1.5992.

We expect a range today of 1.4910- 1.5010

Majors:

A US Report released overnight from the Institute of Supply Management showed that growth in the Services Industry slowed by a larger than expected amount for the month of June with a reading of 53.3 dropping from a previous May reading of 54.6. As the US economy attempts to close the door on what has been a disappointing first half of the year US Stocks rallied overnight whilst the US Based currency remains weak dropping to an overnight low of 80.758 against the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile throughout Europe overnight the EURO currency was sold across the board reaching a 24- hour low of 1.4285 as the market continues to digest poorly the downgrade of Portugal to Junk Status earlier in the week. Despite final European GDP coming in on expectation at 0.8 percent further rumours did surface that Ireland may be facing a similar fate to that of Portugal as rating agencies continue to monitor their fiscal stability. In what proved an eventful evening the EURO opens a full cent lower this morning currently trading at a rate of 1.4306 against its US Counterpart.

Data releases

AUD: AIG Construction Index

NZD: Gross Domestic Product

JPY: No Data Today

GBP: Asset Purchase Facility, Official Bank Rate, MPC Rate Statement, Manufacturing Production

EUR: French Trade Balance, ECB Press Conference, German Industrial Production

USD: Unemployment Claims, ADP Non-farm Employment Change.